forex malam

AUDUSD catches a bid

Posted: 03 Jun 2011 07:40 AM PDT
With the dollar selling against the EURUSD at least, the AUDUSD has had a rebound too.  The move higher is also being helped reportedly by a report from an influential columnist for the Herald Sun named Terry McCrann who said the Australian economy remains in a boom. The GDP fell -1.2% in the 1Q as reported earlier in the week. However, he commented that the decline will come back in the 2nd quarter as the decline is simply because the suppliers of mining material could simply not get the goods out fast enough.  Hence there should be a sharp rebound in 2Q.

From a technical perspective, the  pair moved above the 100 hour MA at the 1.0676 level and this wlll now be short term support. On the 5 minute chart below the move higher is steep and contained by a channel. A move outside the boundaries will be eyed by intraday traders looking for momentum clues.  However, stay above the 100 hour MA now and the bias remains to the upside.

EURUSD targets 1.4568 and then 1.4598 area
Posted: 03 Jun 2011 07:13 AM PDT

The EURUSD move abovet the 1.4516-30 resistance area (see prior posts today), opens the door to the next target at the 1.4568 level. This is the 61.8% retracement off the move down from the May high to the low in May.   There is likely to be some resistance against the area.   However, as long as the price remains above the 1.4530 level (and the correction of the high did just that -see 5 minute chart below) the bias is to the upside.

A move above the 1.4568 level will next target the 1.4598 level which is the channel trendline off the hourly chart above.  This target is to topside “guard rail” that the market has been using to pace the upside move (see hourly chart above), and I would expect the market to respect that level should it be tested later today.

ISM non Manufacturing a bit better
Posted: 03 Jun 2011 07:05 AM PDT

Comes in at 54.6 from 52.8. The expectation was 54.0.  Employment rose to 54.0 from 51.9.  New Orders increased to 56.8 from 52.7.  The USDJPY moved back higher in reaction. Moving above the 80.28 level. However, it would seem to me, Unemployment weakness threatens the economy more going forward. The confidence  is still fragile and Unemployment going to 9.1%, job growth going the wrong way is a threat to that confidence.

Greece say EU/IMF/ECB have concluded inspection visit positively
Posted: 03 Jun 2011 06:43 AM PDT
Greece has made moves to show the “will to proceed”.  They add that state asset sales and mid term plan to go to cabinet.
With the weak employment report and a solution to the Greek problem, the focus will shift to the ECB next week.  Any talk of rate rise at any time is more positive for the EURUSD. Oh… I forgot about the US debt issues.

EURUSD Update: In between support and resistance, but back higher in up/down session
Posted: 03 Jun 2011 06:37 AM PDT

The 1.4454 was support. The resistance was 1.4516-30. The low extended to 1.4450. The high extended to 1.4535.  The market is respecting the ranges so far with the dip buyers and the peak sellers.
The EURUSD is back near the highs and threatens a run above the resistance toward the 1.4569 level (61.8% of the move down from the May high).

USDCHF moves toward its next support level as the trend continues
Posted: 03 Jun 2011 06:30 AM PDT

The USDCHF has been true to the trend with the pair continuing its march toward the support on the daily chart at the 0.8314-18 level. This is the trendline of the March and April lows.
On the hourly chart, the parellel trendlines that the market has been using is approaching the underside of a trendline at the 0.8310 level currently. This increases the importance of the area between 0.8310-18.

USDJPY tests 38.2% of the spike lower
Posted: 03 Jun 2011 06:01 AM PDT

USDJPY is trying to stay below the 80.28 level.  This is the 38.2% of the spike move lower.  The dollars rebound against the EURO, GBP, CAD has helped.  The level is a dividing line for intraday trading.
The dollar has not gotten hit as hard as traders thought. The EURUSD rose but fell as did the GBPUSD.  The USDCAD is also soaring on the story that the bad for the US is worse for the CAD.  We will see if that move can be sustained. The stock market will keep the volatility in tact for today.
The weaker job report will put into question the Fed and in particular Quantitative easing going forward. The !QE2 is expiring at the end of  this month. The Fed has been expected to stop the QE and that will likely happen. THey will not stop the rollover of the maturing assets in effect keeping the balance sheet bloated. The hope that this would not be sustained for much lower. With this report, the Fed has no choice now. They have made their bed and the numbers do not support any material change in policy.

GBPUSD rises to 200 hour MA and comes off toward 1.6274 support
Posted: 03 Jun 2011 05:50 AM PDT

The worse than expected US job report has the stocks under pressure and this is leading to some flight to the US dollar against some of the potentially weaker economy countries like the UK. The GBPUSD rose toward the 200 hour MA on the initial reaction – getting to with 7 pips. SInce then, the price has declined.  The price is approaching the bottom trendline in the hourly chart at the 1.6274 level.  This level will be key for the trading bias going forward (the level has been tested a few times over the last few trading days). Holding keeps the pair contained between support and resistance. A break and the downside should be explored further with the 100 day MA and 38.2% of the move up from the Dec 2010 lows at the 1.6210 area the next key target level for the pair.

EURUSD cannot extend above the 1.4516-30 resistance
Posted: 03 Jun 2011 05:44 AM PDT

The EURUSD held the topside resistance at the 1.4516-30 area and came back down. The support at the 1.4454 level remains the downside key level. This is the 50% of the move down from the EURUSD 2011 highs and a ceiling support level on the hourly chart above.

USDJPY moves below 80.24 on weak jobs report
Posted: 03 Jun 2011 05:33 AM PDT

The initial move in the USDJPY is to test the 80.24 level. The price has dipped below the key level on the daily and hourly chart.  This level will be the bull above/bear below line. Market is still digesting the news, but on the surface, a weak report with unemployment moving higher to 9.1% and the NFP/Private lower and revisions also lower.

The 38.2% of the move down comes n at 80.28.  This should hold corrective move if the trend is to the downside. If the market has the number discounted and new sellers don’t show up, a move above the 80.28 level will muddy the water for the USDJPY.

Posted: 03 Jun 2011 05:31 AM PDT
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:         Survey:  165K     Actual:  54K    Prior:  244K      Revision: 232K
Change in Private Payrolls:         Survey: 170K    Actual: 83K     Prior:  268K     Revised: 251K
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:      Survey: 10K     Actual:  -5K       Prior:  29K     Revised: 24K
Unemployment Rate:     Survey:  8.9%     Actual: 9.1%     Prior:  9.0%  
Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp:    Survey:  0.2%     Actual: 0.3%      Prior:  0.1%     

Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp:    Survey:  1.9%      Actual: 1.8%      Prior:  1.9%      

Avg Weekly Hours All Employees:    Survey:  34.3      Actual:  34.4        Prior:  34.3

Chart levels to watch for the USDJPY through the US Employment
Posted: 03 Jun 2011 05:28 AM PDT

Posted: 03 Jun 2011 05:21 AM PDT

Posted: 03 Jun 2011 05:14 AM PDT


The NY Opening Forex Commentary Previews the key levels to watch during the US Employment trading morning
Posted: 03 Jun 2011 05:02 AM PDT
The NY Opening Forex Commentary Previews the key levels to watch during the US Employment trading morning. I outline levels to watch int eh EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF.

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